Mississippi State vs. Alabama Predictions & Picks: Spread, Total – January 29

Published 6:28 pm Tuesday, January 28, 2025

Wednesday’s contest features the No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide (17-3, 6-1 SEC) and the No. 14 Mississippi State Bulldogs (16-4, 4-3 SEC) squaring off at Humphrey Coliseum (on January 29) at 9:00 PM ET. This matchup, according to our computer prediction, will result in an 82-78 win for Alabama, who is a small favorite based on our model.

Based on our computer prediction, Alabama projects to cover the 1.5-point spread in its matchup against Mississippi State. The over/under is currently listed at 165.5, and the two teams are projected to fall short of that total.

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Mississippi State vs. Alabama Game Info & Odds

  • Date: Wednesday, January 29, 2025
  • Time: 9:00 PM ET
  • TV: SEC Network
  • Live stream: Watch this game on Fubo (Regional restrictions may apply)
  • Where: Starkville, Mississippi
  • Venue: Humphrey Coliseum
  • Line: Mississippi State -1.5
  • Point total: 165.5
  • Moneyline (to win): Mississippi State -120, Alabama +100

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Mississippi State vs. Alabama Score Prediction

  • Prediction:
    Alabama 82, Mississippi State 78

Spread & Total Prediction for Mississippi State vs. Alabama

  • Pick ATS: Alabama (+1.5)
  • Pick OU: Under (165.5)

Mississippi State has gone 9-11-0 against the spread, while Alabama’s ATS record this season is 11-9-0. The Bulldogs are 10-10-0 and the Crimson Tide are 11-9-0 in terms of hitting the over. The two teams average 171.1 points per game, 5.6 more points than this matchup’s total. Mississippi State is 4-6 against the spread and 7-3 overall over its last 10 games, while Alabama has gone 7-3 against the spread and 9-1 overall.

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Mississippi State Performance Insights

  • The Bulldogs have a +223 scoring differential, topping opponents by 11.2 points per game. They’re putting up 80.7 points per game to rank 44th in college basketball and are allowing 69.5 per contest to rank 119th in college basketball.
  • The 36.3 rebounds per game Mississippi State averages rank 27th in college basketball, and are 4.3 more than the 32 its opponents record per contest.
  • Mississippi State makes 8.6 three-pointers per game (102nd in college basketball) compared to its opponents’ 8.2. It shoots 32.1% from deep while its opponents hit 34.4% from long range.
  • The Bulldogs average 101.1 points per 100 possessions on offense (70th in college basketball), and give up 87.1 points per 100 possessions (63rd in college basketball).
  • Mississippi State has won the turnover battle by 3.4 turnovers per game, committing 10 (50th in college basketball action) while forcing 13.4 (58th in college basketball).

Alabama Performance Insights

  • The Crimson Tide are outscoring opponents by 11.9 points per game, with a +237 scoring differential overall. They put up 90.4 points per game (first in college basketball) and give up 78.5 per outing (330th in college basketball).
  • Alabama wins the rebound battle by an average of 7.6 boards. It records 40.6 rebounds per game (third in college basketball) compared to its opponents’ 33.
  • Alabama hits 9.9 three-pointers per game (32nd in college basketball) at a 32.5% rate (250th in college basketball), compared to the 6.9 per game its opponents make, at a 29.1% rate.
  • Alabama has come up short in the turnover battle by 1.6 per game, committing 12.1 (257th in college basketball) while forcing 10.5 (285th in college basketball).

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