By BAKER ELLIS / Sports Editor

TUSCALOOSA – It’s about that time. This Wednesday, Dec. 2, Spain Park will kick off the 2015 Super 7 State Football Championships in Tuscaloosa when the Jaguars take on McGill-Toolen. The game will mark just the second time Spain Park has ever played for a championship, and will be McGill-Toolen’s first ever championship appearance. After a relatively successful season predicting games throughout the county, we’re back for one more game before powering down until next fall. Let’s take a look.

McGill-Toolen finished the regular season as the No. 3 team in 7A after starting the season unranked. The Yellow Jackets have only dropped one game all season, a three-point, late-September loss to Blount, and beat Central Phenix City in the semifinals to reach the state finals. Offensively, McGill-Toolen is averaging 29.9 points per game. The Yellow Jacket offense runs primarily through the backfield combination of Terrell Kennedy and Paris Chambers and wideout Marlon Williams.

Chambers is the Yellow Jackets’ senior quarterback who has managed the offense all season. The 6-foot-2-inch, 180-pound prospect is a dual-threat athlete who can make plays with his legs as easily as he can his arm. Chambers works primarily out of the shotgun, and has a feathery accurate touch on his deep ball, allowing him to place his throws in windows where only his receivers can get it, even in tight coverage. He does not have top-end breakaway speed, but moves fluidly in the pocket and has the wheels to easily get to the second level of the defense at the drop of a hat if need be. He has the athleticism to push the Jaguars’ defense, which has only truly been tested a few times this season.

Kennedy is the primary runner in this Yellow Jacket offense, although he often lines up in the slot in empty backfield sets and has more than capable hands. He’s a patient runner who waits for running lanes to develop and sees the field exceptionally well, and has 4.45 speed to match, per Hudl.com. He is one of Chambers’ favorite targets, along with Williams. Williams is a 6-foot-1-inch junior who currently holds offers from Troy, South Alabama and Southern Mississippi while garnering interest from Alabama, per 247sports.com. He is one of the primary recipients of Chambers’ deep fade route balls that have worked so well for the Yellow Jackets. Williams also has an above average arm himself, and has been known to toss a bomb or two from the receiver position on trick plays.

All things considered, however, the Yellow Jackets are only averaging 29.9 points per game, which would place them in the bottom quarter of all state champions across the state since 2000 in terms of offensive production if they do beat Spain Park. Here’s a crazy stat. The fewest average points per game of any state champion in any classification since the year 2000 in the state of Alabama was the 25.1 clip Leroy put up in 2004, which ended with the Bears beating Woodland 17-14 in the 2A state title game. Spain Park is averaging 22.3 points per game this year. For Spain Park to finish the season averaging more than 25.1 points per game, the Jaguars would have to score 63 points against McGill-Toolen, which will not happen. This means if Spain Park wins on Wednesday, it will be the lowest-scoring state champion in the recent memory across all classifications.

All the signs point to this one being a relatively low-scoring contest. Spain Park has been and will be defined by how well the defense has played. In 13 games, the Jaguars have allowed seven points or fewer eight times. In two games against Hoover this season, the Jaguars gave up a total of six points, which all came in the semifinal matchup. The last time Hoover was held to six points was when the Bucs lost the 2010 6A state championship to Daphne by a 7-6 final. This defense just makes plays, time and time again, and will be asked to have its biggest performance on the biggest stage this season to claim the school’s first football championship.

Prediction: This is going to be tight. Both of these defenses are top notch and have playmakers on offense to stretch even the best defenses as well. This Spain Park team could easily be 13-0, but with four wins of three points or less, it could just as easily have lost three other times this season and finished the season 8-4. McGill-Toolen by contrast has only won one game this season by three points or less. Steady leadership on offense, a great defense and fantastic special teams have put the Jaguars in this position, and when a team has come out ahead as many times as this group has in close games, it just doesn’t make sense to bet against them here. Spain Park 21 – McGill-Toolen 14.